Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 智通财经网·2025-08-24 02:23Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has paved the way for a rate cut in September, but the key remains whether the upcoming non-farm payroll data can provide decisive guidance on the pace and magnitude of the cuts [1][9] Employment Data Concerns - Goldman Sachs indicates that future employment growth revisions are likely to be negative due to several factors [2] - The birth-death model may be overly optimistic [3] - Historical data revisions during economic slowdowns tend to be negative [3] - ADP data raises questions about healthcare sector employment growth [3] - Household surveys currently overestimate immigration and employment growth [3] Labor Market Performance - The outlook for employment growth is bleak, with a significant uncertainty regarding balanced employment growth [3] - Goldman Sachs estimates a balanced employment growth level of around 80,000, while the three-month average growth is concerning at 35,000 [3] - The substantial revision of July data has raised concerns for the Federal Reserve about potentially delayed responses to an impending economic slowdown [3] Rate Cut Path - The window for a more significant slowdown in employment data is currently open [4] - Market focus on August non-farm data is heightened due to previous data revisions [4] - The Federal Reserve is on track for a September rate cut, followed by cautious observation of the labor market for signs of further weakness [4] Rate Cut Cycle Completion - Goldman Sachs believes there is a high likelihood that the rate cut cycle will conclude by mid-2026, regardless of whether the economy is slowing or normalizing [5][7] - Powell's term as Fed Chairman ends in May next year, which may coincide with the end of the rate cut cycle [5] Yield Curve Considerations - The U.S. yield curve is currently flat as of June 26/28, 2026, providing a framework for future policy considerations [6]