鲍威尔暗示美联储可能降息，专家：既是久违的“顺风”，也可能潜藏“暗流”丨川观智库·金融研究院

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated an openness to interest rate cuts, suggesting potential adjustments in policy due to employment growth risks [1][2] - Following Powell's remarks, traders increased bets on a September rate cut, with a 91.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut being priced in [1] - The U.S. stock market surged, with major indices rising significantly, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the USD, indicating positive market reactions to the potential rate cut [1][3] Group 2 - Powell's comments suggest a mixed impact for China, presenting both opportunities and challenges, particularly in terms of interest rate differentials and currency pressures [2] - A potential rate cut by the Fed could lead to a narrowing of the China-U.S. interest rate gap, providing the Chinese central bank with more room to implement monetary easing measures [2][5] - The weakening of the USD and strengthening of the RMB could lower import costs for commodities, aiding domestic inflation control and inventory replenishment [3][4] Group 3 - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields and the narrowing of the China-U.S. interest rate differential may attract foreign capital back to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [4] - The rebound in real estate dollar bond prices could provide distressed property companies with a window to stabilize their financial situations [4] - However, foreign capital is characterized as "profit-seeking migratory birds," indicating that it may withdraw quickly if domestic fundamentals do not improve [4] Group 4 - The Fed's potential rate cut could alleviate the interest burden on local government debt and expand financing leverage for special bonds [5] - There is a risk that excessive reliance on monetary easing could delay necessary structural reforms and lead to a "long-term dependency syndrome" [5] - The rise in international gold prices and increased profitability for domestic gold mining and smelting companies may not translate to benefits for downstream manufacturing sectors [5]