招商宏观：9月或为人民币汇率升值的观察窗口 若人民币汇率重回6时代 中国资产或迎全面重估

Core Viewpoint - September may serve as an observation window for the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, particularly if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates as expected [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate - The increase in RMB settlement scale in September last year was attributed to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [1] - If the Federal Reserve cuts rates this September, and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) acts accordingly, the RMB exchange rate is likely to appreciate [1] - The expectation of the Federal Reserve's rate cut has led to improved alignment in the monetary policy cycles of China and the U.S., narrowing the interest rate differential [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The potential for a rebound in Chinese government bond yields and the appreciation of the RMB suggests a positive outlook for the RMB [1] - Implementation of anti-involution policies could significantly improve the competitive landscape for Chinese enterprises [1] - If the RMB returns to the 6 range and the real effective exchange rate appreciates, it will enhance the attractiveness of Chinese equity assets, likely leading to foreign capital inflows [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - A comprehensive revaluation of Chinese assets may occur, particularly benefiting leading consumer and domestic demand assets [1] - The current market conditions may present a favorable allocation window for high-quality consumer stocks and other domestic demand-related assets [1]