预计下周有色金属震荡运行

Group 1: Copper - The current macroeconomic environment is cautious, with a potential increase in copper imports to supplement domestic supply after the end of the siphoning effect in the U.S. [1] - Short-term supply of copper is expected to remain loose, with downstream purchasing primarily driven by essential demand [1] - Copper prices are projected to decline, with a reference range of 77,800-78,800 CNY/ton for spot prices and 9,600-9,800 USD/ton for LME copper [1] Group 2: Aluminum - Domestic spot aluminum prices have slightly decreased, averaging 20,602 CNY, with a decline of 0.35% [1] - The macroeconomic outlook is influenced by U.S.-Russia talks, Federal Reserve dynamics, and adjustments in U.S. tariffs, leading to a generally mild market sentiment [1] - The basic supply-demand structure is showing slight improvement, with a slowdown in inventory accumulation, and aluminum prices are expected to rise slightly next week, averaging around 20,700 CNY [1] Group 3: Lead - Lead prices are experiencing a weak fluctuation, with current spot prices expected to focus on a range of 16,600-16,800 CNY/ton [1] - The consumption peak in August has not materialized, leading to weak domestic demand and low-price procurement by downstream buyers [1] - The increase in overseas lead ingot inventories is putting additional pressure on lead prices [1] Group 4: Zinc - The macroeconomic news is limited, and demand remains weak, leading to increased market risk aversion [2] - Domestic inventories are continuing to accumulate, which is negatively impacting prices, while terminal order recovery is not yet evident [2] - Zinc prices are expected to continue fluctuating, with a focus on a range of 22,000-22,800 CNY [2] Group 5: Tin - Electrolytic tin prices have been fluctuating downwards, influenced by tariff uncertainties and fluctuating expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2] - Domestic imports of tin concentrate decreased in July, with supply tightening providing some support for tin prices [2] - Overall trading activity in the tin market is subdued, with prices expected to maintain a range of 26,000-27,500 CNY [2] Group 6: Nickel - The average spot nickel price this week was 121,635 CNY/ton, down by 1,815 CNY, reflecting a decline of 1.47% [2] - Nickel prices are trending weakly, with no improvement in transaction opportunities and a prevailing bearish sentiment in the market [2] - Supply-demand imbalances persist, with expectations of limited price fluctuations next week, focusing on a range of 118,000-123,000 CNY [2]