全球市场大涨后 美联储又开始放话“降温”了

Core Viewpoint - Powell's cautious stance at the Jackson Hole conference indicates that while a rate cut may occur next month, it does not signal the beginning of a sustained easing cycle, reflecting the Fed's careful approach to future monetary policy [2][3] Group 1: Powell's Statements and Market Reactions - Powell's remarks suggest that the market's optimistic expectations for rate cuts need to be tempered, highlighting the Fed's cautious attitude towards future monetary policy [2] - A comparison of Powell's speeches from last year and this year reveals a shift from a clear policy direction to a more ambiguous stance, indicating uncertainty in the Fed's future policy decisions [2] Group 2: Internal Fed Disagreements - There is a lack of consensus within the Fed regarding the potential rate cut in September, with some officials opposing the move, suggesting that any cut may be a one-time "insurance cut" rather than the start of a prolonged easing cycle [3] - The internal disagreements reflect differing views on the current economic situation, with some officials believing that immediate rate cuts are unnecessary while others advocate for modest cuts to mitigate potential economic downturns [3] Group 3: Upcoming Economic Data and Uncertainty - Key economic data, including the core PCE price index and upcoming CPI and non-farm payroll figures, will significantly influence the Fed's decision-making process regarding a potential rate cut in September [4] - The release of these economic indicators will provide the Fed with critical information to assess the strength of the economy and inflation pressures, which will directly impact the likelihood of a rate cut [4] - Powell's cautious remarks and the internal divisions within the Fed contribute to the uncertainty surrounding the September rate cut, necessitating close monitoring of forthcoming economic data and Fed officials' statements [4]