酒鬼酒(000799)：业绩短期承压 新品孵化构筑第二曲线

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating short-term pressure on performance due to cautious cash flow from downstream partners [1][4]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 561 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9 million yuan, down 92.60% [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue was 217 million yuan, a decline of 56.57%, with a net profit of -23 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year drop of 147.77% [1]. - The company's gross margin and net margin for H1 2025 were 68.58% and 1.60%, respectively, down 4.77 and 10.58 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Product and Channel Strategy - The company is focusing on a "2+2+2" strategic product system, emphasizing major products and gradually upgrading them [1]. - Revenue from different product lines in H1 2025 showed declines, with the Inner Reference series, Jiu Gui series, and Xiang Quan series experiencing decreases of 35.81%, 51.01%, and 35.87%, respectively [1]. - The company has strengthened direct sales and special channel construction, leveraging collaboration with COFCO Group to enhance business growth [2]. New Product Development - The launch of the co-developed product "Jiu Gui Jiu·Zi You Ai" has gained significant market recognition, with strong sales reported since its release [2]. - The company plans to introduce new products targeting young consumers, including low-alcohol options and small wine products, to enhance market presence [3]. Future Outlook - Despite short-term performance pressures, the company anticipates stabilization and recovery in H2 2025, with projected revenues of 1.444 billion, 1.605 billion, and 1.853 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [4]. - The expected net profit for the same period is forecasted to be 35 million, 60 million, and 129 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios indicating a neutral rating [4].