长安汽车(000625)：毛利同环比改善 关注启源深蓝新车

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 72.69 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.3 billion yuan, down 19% year-on-year. The quarterly performance is in line with expectations, and the launch of new models is expected to enhance profitability in the new energy vehicle segment [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 38.5 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3% but a year-on-year increase of 13%. The net profit for the same period was 900 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 44% and a year-on-year decrease of 31% [1]. - The company sold 650,000 new vehicles in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1%. The sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 230,000 units, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 53% and a year-on-year increase of 35% [1]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 15.2%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.0 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 1.3 percentage points [1]. Group 2: New Product Launches - The company plans to launch three new energy vehicles between September and December 2025, focusing on high cost-performance and advanced driving capabilities [2]. - The new models include: 1. Changan Qiyuan A06, a mid-size sedan with dual power options and advanced driving features [2]. 2. Qiyuan Q05 facelift, a compact pure electric SUV expected to launch in Q4 2025 [2]. 3. Deep Blue L06, a mid-size coupe with sporty design and advanced technology, also expected in Q4 2025 [2]. Group 3: Corporate Developments - The establishment of the new Changan Automobile Group, directly supervised by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, is expected to inject new momentum into the company's development [3]. - Following the establishment, 19 executives from Changan and Changan Automobile announced plans to collectively increase their holdings in the company's A-shares, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term value and future prospects [3]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at 189.7 billion, 212.7 billion, and 230.5 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit forecasts at 7.7 billion, 9.5 billion, and 10.7 billion yuan [4]. - The valuation for traditional business is set at 15 times PE for 2025, equating to 109.5 billion yuan, while the "Deep Blue + Avita" business is valued at 1.1 times PS for 2025, leading to a total market value of 162.3 billion yuan [4].