中国银河：给予江苏银行买入评级

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Bank's performance is stable with an increase in revenue growth, achieving operating income of 44.864 billion yuan, up 7.78% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 20.238 billion yuan, up 8.05% year-on-year in H1 2025 [2][3] Financial Performance - The annualized weighted average ROE is 15.64%, down 0.78 percentage points year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 9.38% and 7.95% year-on-year, respectively [2] - Net interest income for H1 2025 reached 32.939 billion yuan, up 19.1% year-on-year, benefiting from strong asset scale growth. The net interest margin is 1.78%, down 8 basis points from the beginning of the year [3] - As of June 30, 2025, total loans increased by 15.98% year-on-year, with corporate loans up 23.3% and retail loans up 3.07% [3] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income for H1 2025 was 11.925 billion yuan, down 14.63% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed. The company’s intermediary business income grew by 5.15% year-on-year [4] - The fair value changes and investment income were down 1.54% and 111.07% year-on-year, respectively, but the fair value changes saw a significant increase of 577.39% in Q2 due to a recovery in the bond market [4] Asset Quality - As of June 30, 2025, the non-performing loan ratio is 0.84%, down 2 basis points, reaching a historical low. The coverage ratio is 331.02%, indicating a strong risk mitigation level [4] - The personal loan non-performing ratio is 0.87%, down 1 basis point from the beginning of the year, with the business loan non-performing ratio down 37 basis points to 1.67% [4] Investment Recommendation - The company is well-positioned in the economically developed Jiangsu region, with strong financial resources and growth prospects. It has a robust growth momentum in on-balance sheet loans and is focusing on key sectors [5] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 30% in 2024 and continue mid-term dividends in 2025. The projected book value per share for 2025-2027 is 14.16 yuan, 15.67 yuan, and 17.29 yuan, respectively [5]