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神火股份(000933):Q2电解铝利润弹性显现 煤炭跌价拖累业绩

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 20.428 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.904 billion yuan, down 16.6% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 10.797 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year and 12.1% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 1.196 billion yuan, which is a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year and a significant increase of 68.9% quarter-on-quarter [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company’s aluminum production and sales volume for the first half of 2025 reached 871,100 tons and 871,400 tons, respectively, both up 16.2% and 16.3% year-on-year, achieving over 51% of the annual plan [2] - The comprehensive selling price of aluminum was 16,269 yuan per ton, up 4.2% year-on-year, while the sales cost was 12,284 yuan per ton, up 6.4% year-on-year, leading to a gross profit of 3,986 yuan per ton, down 1.8% year-on-year [2] - The coal production and sales volume for the first half of 2025 were 3.7078 million tons and 3.7275 million tons, respectively, up 14.9% and 18.3% year-on-year [2] - The comprehensive selling price of coal was 773 yuan per ton, down 30.6% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 91 yuan per ton, down 72.2% year-on-year [2] Regional Performance - The net profit from the Xinjiang coal power and Yunnan Shenhuo regions was 1.235 billion yuan and 983 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 3.2% and 79.1%, indicating significant profit growth in the Yunnan region due to increased production capacity [2] Investment Income and Expenses - Investment income for the first half of 2025 was 332 million yuan, up 116.2% year-on-year, with 240 million yuan coming from joint ventures and associates, an increase of 168 million yuan [3] - Operating expenses rose to 186 million yuan, up 48.8% year-on-year, primarily due to losses from a subsidiary's settlement and fines incurred during the period [3] Future Outlook - The company adjusted its aluminum and coal price assumptions, projecting net profits attributable to shareholders of 5.16 billion yuan, 5.71 billion yuan, and 6.37 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3] - With improving macroeconomic sentiment and seasonal expectations, aluminum prices are expected to rise, and coal segment profitability may recover in the second half of the year [3]