长安汽车(000625)：25Q2毛利环比提升 25H2新能源增量可期

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 72.69 billion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.29 billion yuan, down 19.1% year-on-year [1] - The second quarter of 2025 showed a slight revenue decrease but a significant increase in sales of new energy vehicles, indicating a shift in product mix towards higher-value models [2] - The establishment of a new group by the company aims to enhance resource integration and operational efficiency, supporting the rapid development of new energy vehicles [3] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 38.53 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year but an increase of 12.8% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 0.94 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 43.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 30.6% [3] - The adjusted net profit, excluding certain losses, was 0.69 billion yuan, down 34.4% year-on-year and 11.5% quarter-on-quarter [3] Sales and Cost Structure - The company’s self-owned vehicle sales reached 392,000 units in Q2 2025, up 3.5% year-on-year but down 10.8% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The average selling price (ASP) for vehicles in Q2 2025 was 98,000 yuan, an increase of 2,300 yuan from the previous quarter [2] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 15.2%, up 2.0 percentage points year-on-year and 1.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, despite cost pressures [2] Expense and Investment Insights - Sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios for Q2 2025 were 7.0%, 3.1%, 4.6%, and -2.3% respectively, with sales expenses increasing due to new model promotions [3] - Investment income from joint ventures and associates was 0.01 billion yuan, down from previous periods [3] Strategic Developments - The establishment of the new China Changan Automobile Group aims to deepen resource integration and enhance governance efficiency, which is expected to support the growth of new energy vehicles [3] - The company is expected to launch several new energy models in the second half of 2025, which may further improve sales performance [2] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 189.6 billion yuan, 209.5 billion yuan, and 233.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 8.06 billion yuan, 10.16 billion yuan, and 12.72 billion yuan [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.81 yuan, 1.02 yuan, and 1.28 yuan for the same years, indicating a positive growth trajectory [4]