安琪酵母(600298)：以史为鉴 大周期起点

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to enter a profit release cycle starting in 2025, driven by favorable cost and capacity dynamics, alongside potential price increases due to demand recovery [2][3]. Group 1: Profit Release Cycle - Historical profit release cycles have shown that the company generally outperforms the food and beverage sector, with significant profit elasticity observed in 2009, 2016-2018, and 2020 [1]. - The three historical profit release cycles indicate that profit elasticity is primarily driven by faster price increases while sugar molasses costs remain low or decline [1]. - The company’s net profit margin increased by 6.8 percentage points in 2009, 10.7 percentage points from 2015-2017, and 3.6 percentage points in 2020, highlighting the correlation between cost management and pricing strategies [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The company anticipates maintaining double-digit revenue growth, with domestic demand stabilizing and overseas market expansion contributing to high growth rates [2]. - The sugar molasses price is expected to decline due to supply expansion, weak downstream demand, and falling corn prices, with recent bids in Guangxi dropping to 1000-1100 RMB per ton [2]. - The company is entering a favorable cycle where both cost and capacity pressures are expected to ease, potentially leading to price increases if demand recovers [2]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company maintains previous profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 1.64 billion, 1.92 billion, and 2.19 billion RMB for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 23.6%, 17.1%, and 14.4% respectively [3]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected at 21, 18, and 16 times for the respective years, indicating that the company is still at a historically low valuation [3]. - The company is positioned at a fundamental turning point, suggesting a strategic opportunity for investment during this valuation bottom [3].