Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China has been experiencing a long-term decline since 2022, with average housing prices dropping over 30% nationwide, and a continuous decline in second-hand housing prices for more than 30 months, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.32% in July [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Housing prices in various cities, including first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, have joined the downward trend, indicating a widespread market adjustment [1]. - Despite the downward trend, numerous government policies aimed at stimulating the market have been introduced, such as lifting purchase restrictions and increasing housing loan limits [3]. - The average mortgage interest rate has been reduced from a peak of 5.88% to 3.2%, and tax reductions have been implemented to lower the cost of home buying [3]. Group 2: Expert Predictions - Notable figures like Li Ka-shing and Cao Dewang predict a significant reshuffling in the housing market over the next five years, advising caution for speculative buyers while suggesting that home purchases for personal use may still be viable [6][8]. - Li Ka-shing's actions, including the sale of properties at discounted prices, reflect a bearish outlook on the future of the real estate market [6]. - Cao Dewang emphasizes that real estate is fundamentally not valuable, urging homeowners to sell excess properties to avoid future losses [6]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The housing market faces long-term oversupply, with 600 million buildings available for a population of 3 billion, and over 120 million vacant homes, indicating a persistent supply-demand imbalance [8]. - The aging population in China, with over 300 million individuals aged 60 and above, is expected to reduce the demand for new housing, as many older individuals already own homes [10]. - A decline in the younger population, particularly those born in the 1990s and 2000s, suggests a shrinking demand for first-time home purchases [10]. Group 4: Economic Factors - Slowing income growth among residents, exacerbated by economic downturns and layoffs, is leading to more rational home-buying decisions, with many families now considering their financial situations before purchasing [10]. - The price-to-income ratio for housing in second-tier cities is between 20-25, while in first-tier cities, it exceeds 40, indicating a disconnect between housing prices and residents' income levels [10].
李嘉诚曹德旺再次预言:2025年不买房,5年后庆幸还是后悔?
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-24 11:59