罗莱生活(002293)：南通智慧产业园一期投产落地 自制产能大幅提升

Core Viewpoint - The company reported lower-than-expected profits for the first half of 2025, with revenue growth and net profit showing mixed results, indicating potential challenges ahead [1][3]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, revenue reached 2.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 185 million yuan, up 17.0% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 154 million yuan, reflecting a 9.8% increase [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue was 1.09 billion yuan, a 6.8% increase year-on-year, but net profit was only 72 million yuan, up 4.9%, with adjusted net profit declining by 10.3% to 48 million yuan, indicating a disappointing profit performance for the quarter [1]. - The company proposed a mid-term cash dividend of 0.2 yuan per share, totaling 167 million yuan, with a high cash dividend payout ratio of 90% [1]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 47.8%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, but the expense ratio was high at 36.5%, up 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to increased management expenses [1]. - In Q2 2025, the gross margin was 49.7%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio rose to 40.3%, up 3.1 percentage points, largely impacted by rental disputes at the Shanghai headquarters [1]. Inventory and Cash Flow - As of the end of H1 2025, inventory stood at 1.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 230 million yuan year-on-year, with inventory turnover days at 169 days, down 42 days, indicating low channel inventory [2]. - The net operating cash flow for H1 2025 was 380 million yuan, a significant increase of 28.9% year-on-year, and cash and cash equivalents totaled 580 million yuan, indicating strong liquidity despite a decrease in cash due to increased bond investments [2]. Business Segment Performance - The domestic home textile segment benefited from national subsidies, with online sales growing robustly, while offline franchise operations continued to contract. For H1 2025, revenue from online, direct, franchise, and other channels was 740 million, 190 million, 600 million, and 260 million yuan, respectively, with online sales up 18.3% year-on-year [3]. - The U.S. furniture business faced challenges, with revenue of 390 million yuan, a decline of 7.8% year-on-year, and a net loss of 28.75 million yuan, which widened by 6.92 million yuan compared to the previous year [3]. Strategic Developments - The company completed the first phase of the Rola Smart Industrial Park, which began production in H1 2025, enhancing production capacity by 20% to 6.247 million sets, and improving supply chain efficiency through automation [4]. - The company has maintained the top market share in bedding products for 20 consecutive years and is entering a new growth cycle with the launch of the smart industrial park [4]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 470 million, 550 million, and 600 million yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates [4]. - The target market capitalization for 2025 is set at 9.1 billion yuan, reflecting a potential 26% upside from the market value as of August 22, 2023, maintaining a "buy" rating [4].