北新建材(000786)：石膏板韧性下的两翼突破

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but certain segments like waterproof coatings and paints showed resilience and growth despite industry challenges [1][2]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 13.558 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, and a net profit of 1.93 billion yuan, down 12.8% [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue was 7.312 billion yuan, a decline of 4.5%, with net profit at 1.087 billion yuan, down 21.9% [1]. Segment Analysis - Gypsum Board Business: Revenue decreased by 8.57% to 6.677 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a slight decline in gross margin to 38.68%. Despite demand pressure, the company maintained pricing power due to high market share [2][3]. - Keel Business: Revenue fell by 10.72% to 1.137 billion yuan, but gross margin improved by 0.43 percentage points to 21.65%. There is significant potential for growth in the keel business due to low current matching rates [2]. - Waterproof Business: Revenue was approximately 2.49 billion yuan, growing by 6%, with net profit of 140 million yuan, also up 6%. The business showed resilience despite a downturn in new real estate starts [3]. - Coating Business: Revenue reached around 2.16 billion yuan, a significant increase of 44.4%, with net profit of 170 million yuan, up 31.8%. The integration of Jia Baoli has led to notable improvements in both revenue and profit [3]. Growth Outlook - The company is expected to strengthen its long-term growth logic through stable profitability and continued pricing power, even in a weak demand environment [3]. - There are opportunities for category expansion and accelerated mergers and acquisitions, particularly in light steel keels and panels, which can leverage existing sales channels [3]. - Projections for non-deductible net profit for 2025-2027 are estimated at 4.56 billion, 5.472 billion, and 6.567 billion yuan, respectively [3]. Investment Considerations - The company is not currently considering mergers and acquisitions, with expected earnings of 3.95 billion and 4.58 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, corresponding to PE ratios of 11.4 and 9.8 times [4]. - The valuation is at a historically low level, suggesting potential for future elasticity with the possibility of recovery in the economic cycle [4].