Is Paramount Skydance a Buy Post-Merger, Short Squeeze?

Core Viewpoint - Paramount Skydance, formed from the merger of Paramount and Skydance Media, aims to transform the traditional media landscape with a technology-driven approach, despite concerns over its current stock valuation [3][4][11]. Group 1: Company Overview - Paramount Skydance began trading under its new name on August 7, with shares increasing by 15% by August 18 [1]. - The merger combines Paramount's extensive content library with Skydance's production capabilities, led by David Ellison, son of Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison [3][4]. - The company plans to leverage artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure to enhance content creation and delivery [4]. Group 2: Financial Moves and Strategy - Paramount Skydance acquired exclusive rights to UFC events for seven years at a cost of $1.1 billion annually, which is double the previous ESPN deal [5][6]. - The goal of this acquisition is to enhance the attractiveness of Paramount+ and potentially increase subscription prices, despite concerns about the financial viability of the deal [6]. Group 3: Stock Performance and Valuation - As of August 18, shares closed at $13.50, significantly above the consensus price target of $10.50, indicating a potential downside of 22% [8][11]. - The company generated $507 million in free cash flow over the past 12 months, with an enterprise value of approximately $24.5 billion, resulting in an EV/FCF ratio of 48x, which is higher than competitors like Walt Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery [9][10]. - The implicit financial backing from Larry Ellison, with a net worth of nearly $300 billion, is viewed as a positive factor for the company's future [10].