Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock's recent trend in either direction. In "long context," investors will be essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." With this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving that way. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades. While many investors like to look for momentum ...

Core Viewpoint - Paramount Skydance, formed from the merger of Paramount and Skydance Media, aims to transform the traditional media landscape with a technology-driven approach, despite concerns over its current stock valuation [3][4][11]. Group 1: Company Overview - Paramount Skydance began trading under its new name on August 7, with shares increasing by 15% by August 18 [1]. - The merger combines Paramount's extensive content library with Skydance's production capabilities, led by David Ellison, son of Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison [3][4]. - The company plans to leverage artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure to enhance content creation and delivery [4]. Group 2: Financial Moves and Strategy - Paramount Skydance acquired exclusive rights to UFC events for seven years at a cost of $1.1 billion annually, which is double the previous ESPN deal [5][6]. - The goal of this acquisition is to enhance the attractiveness of Paramount+ and potentially increase subscription prices, despite concerns about the financial viability of the deal [6]. Group 3: Stock Performance and Valuation - As of August 18, shares closed at $13.50, significantly above the consensus price target of $10.50, indicating a potential downside of 22% [8][11]. - The company generated $507 million in free cash flow over the past 12 months, with an enterprise value of approximately $24.5 billion, resulting in an EV/FCF ratio of 48x, which is higher than competitors like Walt Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery [9][10]. - The implicit financial backing from Larry Ellison, with a net worth of nearly $300 billion, is viewed as a positive factor for the company's future [10].

Group 1 - Paramount Resources reported the completion of a processing plant ahead of schedule, leading to a slight adjustment in fiscal year guidance [2] - The oil and gas industry is characterized as a boom-bust, cyclical sector, requiring patience and experience for successful investment [2] Group 2 - The analysis of oil and gas companies focuses on identifying undervalued entities, examining balance sheets, competitive positions, and development prospects [1]

Core Viewpoint - Paramount is planning significant layoffs in early November as part of a restructuring effort following its merger with Skydance Media, aiming to save over $2 billion [1][2][5]. Group 1: Layoff Details - The layoffs are described as an "epic bloodbath," with management instructed to compile lists of employees to be terminated [1][2]. - The layoffs will coincide with the third-quarter earnings report and an investor presentation by the new management [3]. - Jeff Shell, the new president, indicated that the cuts will be "painful" and will occur all at once, rather than in waves [4][8]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The restructuring is expected to save the company over $2 billion, with potential for cuts to exceed this target [2][6]. - The company aims to avoid quarterly layoffs in the future, focusing on a single, substantial reduction [4]. Group 3: Management Vision - David Ellison, CEO of Paramount Skydance, emphasized that the new executive team does not believe in cutting for growth, indicating a shift in strategy [7]. - The management team has been promoting their vision for revitalizing the company, although specifics have been limited [6]. Group 4: Recent Developments - Changes within the company include internal shifts in leadership roles, such as the movement of CBS Evening News executive producer Guy Campanile [10][11]. - Paramount has also secured exclusive rights to UFC events in a $7.7 billion deal, starting in 2026, indicating a strategic move to enhance content offerings [14].

Group 1 - The Duffer Brothers have signed an exclusive four-year deal with Paramount, which has recently merged with Skydance, for feature films, television, and streaming projects [1][2][5] - Their contract with Netflix will end in April 2026, after which Upside Down Pictures, led by the Duffer Brothers, will start developing projects for Paramount Pictures and Paramount Television [2][4] - The Duffer Brothers expressed excitement about joining Paramount, viewing it as a fulfillment of a lifelong dream to bring bold, original films to the big screen [3] Group 2 - The Duffer Brothers are currently working on two projects for Netflix, "Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen" and "The Boroughs," and will continue to be involved with Netflix for these projects [4] - The merger of Paramount and Skydance is aimed at investing in high-quality storytelling and cutting-edge technology to define the next era of entertainment [5]

Group 1 - Paramount's president Jeff Shell indicated that upcoming job cuts will be "painful" but will occur quickly, with an expectation of $2 billion in cuts [1][3] - Shell emphasized the importance of avoiding quarterly layoffs, contrasting with the previous leadership's approach [2][3] - The restructuring could potentially exceed the $2 billion target, although no specific timeline was provided for the layoffs [5][6] Group 2 - Paramount recently acquired exclusive rights to show UFC matches in the US in a $7.7 billion, seven-year deal starting in 2026, which significantly boosted the company's stock by 37% [9][10] - Following the initial surge, the stock experienced a slight decline of 4%, closing at $14.38 [10]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of in-depth research in the casino and gaming sector, highlighting the availability of resources for investors [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The casino and gaming sector is characterized by significant operational complexities and requires specialized knowledge for effective investment [1] - The sector includes various segments such as traditional casinos, online betting, and entertainment industries, which are interconnected [2] Group 2: Expert Analysis - Howard Jay Klein, with 30 years of experience in major casino operations, leads an investing group called The House Edge, focusing on actionable research in the gaming industry [2] - Klein's investment strategy is centered around value investing, emphasizing the quality of management as a key factor in investment decisions [2] Group 3: Research and Resources - The House Edge offers a subscription service that provides in-depth research and insights into the casino and gaming sector, including a forthcoming guide on gaming stocks [1]

Core Viewpoint - Paramount Group reported significant leasing activity in its second-quarter earnings call, highlighting a major unreported lease and the overall strength of its New York portfolio, despite some omissions regarding vacant properties [1][4]. Leasing Activity - Paramount leased 690,000 square feet of offices in New York and San Francisco year-to-date, with 52% of these leases occurring in Manhattan [3]. - The starting rents for the leases signed by Piper Sandler and Adler & Stachenfeld were above $90 per square foot [3]. Portfolio Performance - The New York portfolio is currently 88.1% leased, the highest level since early 2022, indicating a strong demand for quality office space in the city [4][7]. - The reported leasing figures do not account for the vacant 60 Wall St., which has 1.6 million empty square feet, potentially skewing the perceived strength of the portfolio [4][7]. Debt and Refinancing - The largest upcoming maturity for Paramount is an $860 million loan on 1301 Sixth Ave., which is backed by high-performing assets that are over 97% leased [8]. - The company is on track to refinance this asset and plans to provide more details in the next earnings call [8]. Future Outlook - Showtime Networks is set to move out from 260,000 square feet at 1633 Broadway next year, but the building has been solidly leased for over 10 years, with active showings currently taking place [8]. - Asking rents at 1633 Broadway range from $70 to $90 per square foot, with positive activity noted in the leasing market [9].

Core Insights - Skydance Media has successfully merged with Paramount Global, creating a new publicly traded entity named Skydance Paramount Corp, valued at $8 billion, despite previous political and shareholder concerns [1][5][10] - The merger aims to revitalize Paramount's legacy brands and streaming services by leveraging Skydance's production and technological expertise [1][4] Company Structure and Leadership - David Ellison, the CEO of Skydance, will lead the new company and has outlined a vision to transform Paramount into a technology-driven organization [2][4] - The company will be restructured into three divisions: studios, direct-to-consumer, and TV media [4] - Jeff Shell, former NBCUniversal CEO, will serve as president, while George Cheeks will oversee the TV Media division [12][15] Financial Aspects - Skydance's acquisition includes a $2.4 billion payment for the Redstone family's controlling 77% stake in Paramount Global, alongside $4.5 billion to non-National Amusements shareholders and an additional $1.5 billion for debt reduction [10][11] - Shari Redstone will receive $180 million in severance and benefits, in addition to her stock holdings [10][17] Strategic Focus - The new leadership emphasizes enhancing streaming services, with plans for Paramount+ and Pluto TV to operate on a unified technology platform by 2026 [16] - The company aims to reinvent its TV Media brand portfolio to adapt to a non-linear viewing environment, focusing on maximizing cash flow for reinvestment [18]

Executive Compensation - The new Paramount has established employment contracts for its executive team, including chairman-CEO David Ellison and President Jeff Shell, with five-year contracts featuring an annual base salary of $3.5 million, a target bonus of $1.5 million, and a one-time restricted stock grant valued at $75 million each [1] - Andrew Brandon-Gordon, EVP, Chief Strategy Officer and Chief Operating Officer, will receive a base salary of $2.8 million, a target bonus of $1.2 million, and a one-time restricted stock award valued at $60 million [2] Severance Payments - Outgoing Paramount Global executives Brian Robbins and Chris McCarthy will receive severance payouts, with previous SEC filings indicating payments totaling $18.3 million for McCarthy and $18.6 million for Robbins upon termination and other events [2] - The trio of George Cheeks, McCarthy, and Robbins collectively earned $22.2 million, $19.5 million, and $19.6 million, respectively, for the previous year [3] Merger Completion - The merger between Paramount and Skydance has officially closed, marking a significant transition for the company [3]