鲍威尔终于“放鸽” 美股8月将如何收尾

Economic Indicators - The initial value of the US Composite PMI for August is reported at 55.4, marking a 9-month high [1][2] - The Manufacturing PMI initial value stands at 53.3, reaching a 39-month high, while the Services PMI initial value is 55.4, indicating a 2-month low [2] Labor Market Insights - Initial jobless claims rose by 11,000 to 235,000, the largest increase since late May, while continuing claims increased to 1.972 million, the highest level since November 2021 [2] - These trends suggest a potential increase in layoff risks and signs of labor market weakness [2] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Fed Chair Powell's recent dovish signals suggest a possible interest rate cut in September, with market expectations for a 25 basis point cut rising to approximately 85% [3] - Powell indicated that the current economic conditions may require adjustments to the policy stance, balancing inflation risks and employment concerns [2][3] Market Reactions - The US stock market experienced a rebound, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching its first record close of the year, driven by Powell's comments [4] - The energy sector saw the largest gains, up 2.8%, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties affecting oil prices [4] Sector Performance - Technology stocks faced pressure, with a notable decline in AI-related stocks, despite the overall market breadth remaining stable [5] - The expected earnings multiple for the technology sector reached around 30 times, the highest in a year, indicating heightened investor enthusiasm [5]