专家再次预测中国房价走势，大概率又是对的，提前做好2个准备

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing significant price reductions, with new homes offering discounts and second-hand homes seeing price drops of up to 20% or more, leading to buyer hesitation and uncertainty about future price movements [2][4]. Market Predictions - Major institutions like CITIC, CITIC Securities, and Goldman Sachs predict a stabilization in the real estate market, with a clear divide between cities. First-tier cities are expected to stabilize by the end of 2025, while strong second-tier cities may take until 2026-2027, and third- and fourth-tier cities have yet to see a turning point [4][6]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a further decline of 20%-25% in prices before a gradual recovery begins in 2027, supported by increased viewing and transaction volumes in response to policy changes [7]. Market Differentiation - There is a stark contrast between core areas of first-tier cities and suburban developments in third- and fourth-tier cities. For instance, the inventory pressure in Beijing's outer districts is high, leading to policy adjustments such as the lifting of purchase restrictions [8][10]. - Nationally, the inventory of commercial housing has reached 750 million square meters, with 70% concentrated in third- and fourth-tier cities, resulting in extended absorption periods of over 20 months, while core areas in first-tier cities have reduced absorption periods to 6-9 months [10]. Recommendations for Buyers - Buyers are advised to reassess the value of homes, shifting from viewing them as assets to considering them primarily as residences. The market is expected to stabilize, with limited appreciation potential outside of prime areas [10][12]. - It is recommended that first-time buyers focus on core areas and limit monthly mortgage payments to 30% of their income, while those holding multiple properties in less desirable areas should consider asset optimization and early divestment [12][14].