鲍威尔暗示降息却难掩分歧，9月会议或现反向反对票！

Core Viewpoint - The Jackson Hole Symposium this year highlighted the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve, with Chairman Powell hinting at a possible interest rate cut in September amid conflicting economic signals and political pressures [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Signals - The Federal Reserve is grappling with inflation above the 2% target, which continues to rise, while signs of a weakening labor market are emerging [2][4]. - Powell described the current labor market conditions as "confusing," with both demand and supply for labor declining [4]. - Recent data indicates inflation remains above the Fed's target, with price pressures spreading to products and services not directly affected by tariffs [4]. Group 2: Decision-Making Challenges - There is a notable division among decision-makers regarding the appropriateness of a rate cut, with some members expressing dissent during the July meeting when no cut was made [4]. - The potential for dissent may increase if a rate cut occurs in September, as some members may oppose it [4]. Group 3: Political Pressures - The symposium underscored the political pressure on the Federal Reserve, particularly from President Trump, who is advocating for continued rate cuts [3][5]. - Trump's recent comments about potentially firing a Fed official over mortgage fraud allegations illustrate the ongoing scrutiny and pressure from the White House [3]. Group 4: New Framework - Powell introduced a new framework aimed at guiding decision-makers in achieving inflation and employment targets, which reflects a return to fundamental principles [5][6]. - This new strategy removes previous references focused on addressing long-term low inflation challenges prior to the pandemic [5]. Group 5: Global Implications - Powell's speech received applause from global economists, emphasizing the importance of the Fed's independence for broader economic stability [6]. - A potential rate cut in the U.S. could have significant implications for global economic growth, particularly in the Eurozone, where inflation risks may increase [6].