当前A股杠杆水平如何？

Core Viewpoint - The current leverage level in the A-share market is stable and controllable, with significant changes in both on-market and off-market leverage since the "leverage bull" of 2014-2015 [1][2]. On-Market Leverage - Since August 11, the financing balance in the A-share market has exceeded 9 consecutive trading days, indicating active trading of leveraged funds, yet overall leverage remains stable and risks are manageable [3]. - The financing balance as a percentage of the circulating market value is significantly lower than historical peaks, maintaining between 2.23% and 2.35% since July, which is well below the historical maximum of 4.72% [6]. - The proportion of financing purchases to A-share transaction volume is at historical mid-levels, typically between 6% and 9%, and currently remains below the peak of 19.26% [6]. - The average maintenance guarantee ratio is at a high level of 286.80%, well above the warning line of 140%, indicating a safe level of leverage [7]. Off-Market Leverage - Off-market leverage has significantly shrunk, with stricter regulations in place, although there are signs of structural changes, such as an increase in inquiries and business volume for off-market options [4][8]. - Pure off-market financing is rare due to its illegal status, but there is a growing interest in off-market options, particularly bullish structures like "vanilla" options [9][11]. - Despite the emergence of off-market options, compliance risks and payout issues remain significant barriers to growth in this area [12]. - There are indications of potential violations regarding credit funds entering the market, with over ten banks issuing notices to prohibit credit card funds for stock trading, although the actual scale of credit funds entering the market is limited [5][13]. Market Indicators - The data indicates a low level of off-market leverage activity, with negative growth in entrusted loans and limited increases in trust loans, suggesting constrained growth in structured trust financing [18][19]. - The growth in A-share transaction volume aligns with the increase in on-market financing balances, indicating minimal contribution from off-market leverage [21]. - Search volume for keywords related to financing has decreased significantly, reflecting weak demand for off-market leverage [22].