东南亚股市上周观望情绪浓厚，全球流动性宽松预期或提振亚太股

Group 1: Global Market Overview - The global central bank meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is drawing attention, with an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] - Investor sentiment is cautious, leading to mixed performance in the Asia-Pacific markets, with Southeast Asian stock markets mostly declining [1] - The Thai SET index fell by 0.48% to 1253.39 points, while the Vietnamese Ho Chi Minh index rose by 1.04% to 1647.03 points [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis of Thailand - Thailand's economy grew by 2.8% year-on-year in Q2, slightly above market expectations but lower than the previous quarter's 3.2% [2] - The economic growth rate decreased from 0.7% in Q1 to 0.6% in Q2, with exports being the main driver, although challenges from U.S. tariff policies and declining tourism are expected to hinder sustainability [2][4] - Capital Economics forecasts Thailand's GDP growth at 2.7% for 2025, only slightly above 2024's 2.5% [3] Group 3: Regional Economic Performance - Indonesia's GDP grew by 5.12% year-on-year in Q2, exceeding market expectations and marking the fastest quarterly growth since Q2 2023 [4] - Singapore's GDP grew by 1.4% quarter-on-quarter and 4.3% year-on-year in Q2, driven by pre-tariff export activities [5] Group 4: Stock Market Trends in Southeast Asia - Malaysia's stock market has faced continuous net selling for 20 days, with global funds selling $12.9 million worth of Malaysian stocks on August 21 [6] - Foreign investors' holdings in Thai stocks decreased by 24% in the first half of 2025 compared to the end of 2024, with the SET index down by 10.49% as of August 22 [7] - The decline in foreign investment in Thailand is attributed to political uncertainties and a lack of appeal in traditional business sectors compared to growing tech investments [7] Group 5: Monetary Policy Developments - Indonesia's central bank unexpectedly cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5%, marking the fourth cut this year [8] - Following the rate cut, the Indonesian stock market reacted positively, with the benchmark index rising over 1% [8] - Analysts remain optimistic about Indonesia's economic growth potential, with Citibank projecting a 5.4% growth target for 2026 [8]