Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-25 00:55Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance from August 18 to August 22, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.27% to close at 25,339.14 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.89% to 5,647.68 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 0.45% to 9,079.93 points [5][3][1] - Among the sectors, six industries saw gains while five experienced declines. Consumer discretionary, information technology, and consumer staples led the gains with increases of 2.46%, 2.10%, and 0.96% respectively, while materials, energy, and utilities faced the largest declines, dropping by 2.42%, 1.96%, and 1.50% respectively [7][1] Liquidity and Trading Volume - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 280.46 billion, an increase of HKD 23.61 billion from the previous week. The average daily short-selling amount was HKD 32.34 billion, up by HKD 3.21 billion, with short-selling accounting for 11.61% of total trading volume, an increase of 0.35 percentage points [11][1] - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of HKD 17.90 billion, a decrease of HKD 20.22 billion from the previous week [11][1] Valuation and Risk Premium - As of August 22, the Hang Seng Index had a PE ratio of 11.54 and a PB ratio of 1.2, reflecting a 0.2% increase in PE and a 0.01% decrease in PB from the previous week, both at the 85th percentile since 2019. The Hang Seng Tech Index had a PE of 21.77 and a PB of 3.13, at the 22nd and 67th percentiles respectively [14][22] - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was calculated at 4.4% based on the 10-year US Treasury yield of 4.26%, and 6.88% based on the 10-year Chinese Treasury yield of 1.7818% [20][18] Investment Outlook - The US Department of Commerce announced the inclusion of 407 product categories in the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate, which may affect market sentiment [27][29] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a shift in risk balance, suggesting potential adjustments in policy stance, which could lead to increased foreign capital inflow into the Hong Kong market [29][27] - Domestic fiscal data showed a 2.6% year-on-year increase in public budget revenue for July, the highest growth rate of the year, indicating a positive economic outlook [29][27] - Investment recommendations include focusing on sectors with better-than-expected interim results, those benefiting from favorable policies such as AI and "anti-involution" industries, and high-dividend stocks for stable returns amid uncertainties [29][27]