美联储的谨慎降息也许会适得其反

Core Points - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is interpreted as a signal for potential interest rate cuts, yet he maintains a cautious tone, leading to skepticism about the extent of future monetary easing [2] - The current federal funds rate is in a high range of 4.25% to 4.5%, indicating that any potential rate cuts may be limited, slow, and cautious before Powell's term ends in May next year [2] - The cautious approach to rate cuts may not significantly alleviate the negative pressure of high interest rates on the U.S. economy and could exacerbate inflationary pressures stemming from former President Trump's tariff policies, increasing economic uncertainty [2] Summary by Sections - Interest Rate Outlook - Powell's speech suggests a limited flexibility regarding interest rate cuts, rather than a clear indication of a resumption of rate cuts [2] - The high federal funds rate range indicates that any future cuts may be very cautious and gradual [2] - Economic Implications - The cautious rate cuts may not effectively relieve the U.S. economy from the burdens of high interest rates [2] - There is a risk of increased inflationary pressures due to tariff policies, which could worsen the economic situation [2] - The U.S. economy may face a more pronounced downward trend and heightened uncertainty [2]