“不裁人，但也不招人”！美联储担心的就业风险是什么？

Core Insights - The U.S. job market is in a precarious balance characterized by low hiring and low layoffs, which, while maintaining a stable unemployment rate, poses significant risks to economic stability [1][3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the changing risk balance in achieving dual mandates of employment and inflation, noting that recent employment growth has been weaker than expected [1][3] - The current labor market is described as "peculiar," with immigration restrictions limiting labor supply, counteracting reduced demand [1][3] Employment Dynamics - The hiring rate in June was only 3.3%, lower than the 3.9% during the early pandemic and significantly below the 4.6% seen in November 2021 [2] - Layoffs in June accounted for just 1% of total employment, close to the historical low of 0.9% during a strong job market in 2021 [2][3] - The phenomenon of "labor hoarding" is prevalent, where employers are reluctant to lay off workers due to past experiences of difficulty in rehiring [2][3] Risks of Employment Imbalance - Analysts warn that even a slight increase in layoffs could trigger a downward spiral in employment, making it difficult for the economy to absorb job losses [3][4] - In June, approximately 1.6 million workers were laid off, with a potential increase to over 2 million if the layoff rate rises to 1.3%, the pre-pandemic level [3][4] - A recent survey indicated that 20% of U.S. employers plan to slow hiring by the second half of 2025, nearly double the rate from the previous year [4] Impact on Job Seekers - The current low hiring and layoff environment negatively affects job prospects, particularly for younger individuals and low-income workers, leading to prolonged job searches [4]