威尔鑫点金·׀鲍威尔鹰调转鸽声 美元飞流直下金价旱地拔葱

Core Viewpoint - The recent speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference has shifted market sentiment, leading to a significant drop in the US dollar and a corresponding rise in gold prices, indicating a potential change in monetary policy direction [4][9][10]. Market Performance - On Friday, the international spot gold price opened at $3338.40, reaching a high of $3378.52 and a low of $3321.19, closing at $3371.69, an increase of $33.36 or 1.00% [1]. - The US dollar index opened at 98.63, peaked at 98.83, dipped to 97.54, and closed at 97.72, down 0.95% [3]. - The Wellxin precious metals index opened at 6900.60, peaked at 7035.63, dipped to 6841.03, and closed at 6991.27, up 1.31% [4]. Federal Reserve Insights - Powell's speech indicated a potential adjustment in the Fed's policy stance, suggesting that the door for a rate cut in September is now open, contrasting with previous expectations of no cuts [9][10]. - The labor market is showing signs of significant slowdown, which raises the risk of job losses, prompting considerations for economic stimulus [9][10]. - Powell noted that inflation risks are tilted upward in the short term, but he emphasized that the Fed would not allow temporary price increases to evolve into a persistent inflation problem [10]. Technical Analysis - The dollar index is currently in a mid-term bearish trend, with recent attempts to break through key moving averages failing, indicating potential further declines [12]. - The latest net positioning in the dollar futures market shows a net short position of $46.7382 billion, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards bearishness on the dollar [14]. - Gold prices are influenced by macro technical patterns, with significant resistance and support levels identified for future movements [16][19]. Fund Flows and Holdings - The latest data shows that the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, has a holding of 956.77 tons, valued at $1.031 billion, down from 965.37 tons the previous week [25]. - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, reported a holding of 15,288.82 tons, valued at $188.86 million, an increase from 15,071.31 tons [25].