生猪行业“反内卷”的政策逻辑与实践创新

Core Viewpoint - The central government emphasizes preventing "involution" in the pig industry, focusing on capacity control, weight reduction, and limiting secondary fattening to promote high-quality development in the sector [1][4][6]. Group 1: Involution and Market Dynamics - The concept of "involution" refers to a harmful competition where economic entities invest significant resources without overall profit growth, leading to a "zero-sum" situation [2]. - The pig industry faces a supply-demand mismatch, with rapid capacity expansion following the African swine fever outbreak, while demand growth lags behind, resulting in fierce competition and profit compression [2][3]. Group 2: Policy Measures and Industry Response - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has introduced a framework to reduce the national breeding sow population by 1 million to 39.5 million, optimize production, and lower market weights [4][5]. - Policies include strict monitoring of breeding practices and the introduction of a registration management system for livestock farms to ensure quality and stability in supply [4][6]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Statistics - The scale of pig farming has increased, with the proportion of large-scale operations rising from 53% in 2021 to 69% in 2024, indicating a trend towards industry consolidation [7]. - As of mid-2025, leading companies like Muyuan Foods have reduced their breeding sow inventory by 54,000 heads, reflecting a commitment to capacity control [7][8]. Group 4: Weight Reduction and Secondary Fattening - The average slaughter weight of pigs decreased to 90.3 kg in June, down 0.58% month-on-month and 2.11% year-on-year, indicating a clear trend towards weight reduction in response to policy guidance [8]. - The practice of secondary fattening, where pigs are purchased and fattened before sale, disrupts price stability and is being targeted by environmental policies aimed at upgrading or eliminating outdated production capacities [8].