百利好早盘分析：鲍威尔引爆市场 黄金或向阳而生

Group 1: Gold Market - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference hinted at potential interest rate cuts, igniting market reactions [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 91.1%, with only an 8.9% chance of maintaining current rates [3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold may experience a new trend, with a significant support level at $3359 [3] Group 2: Oil Market - The likelihood of a rate cut has led to a slight increase in oil prices, but overall market response remains muted due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [5] - U.S. domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day, while exports rose by 795,000 barrels to 4.372 million barrels per day [5] - EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production to average 13.39 million barrels per day in Q3 and 13.50 million barrels per day in Q4, both upward revisions from previous estimates [5] - Global crude oil consumption is expected to grow by only 680,000 barrels per day this year, marking the weakest increase since 2019 [5] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices are showing signs of adjustment after previous declines, with a potential ABC downward pattern forming [7] - Key resistance level for copper is noted at $4.46 [7] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index has completed a downward structure, indicating the start of a medium-term adjustment [8] - A potential B-wave rebound is suggested, with a resistance level at 43,390 [8]