2025年上半年中国零售地产与消费市场年度研究报告

Core Insights - The report focuses on the retail real estate and consumer market in China for the first half of 2025, highlighting market dynamics and trends compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Consumption - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 24,545.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, accelerating by 0.4 percentage points compared to the first quarter [6] - Retail sales of goods grew by 5.1%, while catering revenue increased by 4.3%, marking the first time in recent years that retail sales surpassed catering revenue [6] - The online retail sales growth rate rebounded to 8.5%, with physical goods online retail accounting for 24.9% of total retail sales [6] Group 2: Retail Real Estate Overview - New supply in 21 key cities totaled 2.069 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 27.5%, indicating a slowdown in the supply side of the retail real estate market [7] - The average vacancy rate in the retail real estate market across 21 cities rose to 10.5%, increasing by 0.3 percentage points in the first half of the year [8] - The average rent in the retail real estate market fell by 2.8% in the first half of the year, with the decline more pronounced in the second quarter compared to the first [8] Group 3: Consumer Trends - There is a rising demand for experiential consumption, with increased shares in fitness venues, beauty services, and pet-related services, reflecting consumers' pursuit of quality and personalized services [3] - The children's sector has become more segmented, covering various fields such as services, entertainment, and fashion, catering to family consumption needs [3] - The entertainment sector has seen an increase in technology-driven gaming and cultural arts, enriching the consumption landscape [3] Group 4: Changes in Retail Dynamics - The structure of consumer demographics is changing, with the rise of the "single economy" and a shift towards pet-related consumption as family consumption contracts [10] - The value proposition of products is shifting from brand value to emotional and functional value, with luxury brands maintaining high-value customer bases [10] - Commercial spaces are evolving from mere transaction venues to social spaces, emphasizing consumer interaction and socialization [10][11] Group 5: Future Outlook - The retail real estate supply in 21 major cities is expected to reach approximately 8 million square meters in 2025, remaining stable compared to the previous year [11] - The market is anticipated to enter a "tide retreat" phase by 2026, with vacancy rates expected to peak by the end of 2025 and gradually decline thereafter [11]