机构认为债市与股市逐步脱钩，平安公司债ETF（511030）回撤稳定可控

Group 1 - The bond market and stock market are gradually decoupling, with the bond market relying on bank proprietary trading and insurance capital this year [1] - In the first seven months, the net issuance scale of the bond market reached 14.3 trillion, with bank proprietary bond investments increasing by 9.6 trillion and insurance capital by 2 trillion [1] - Unlike the previous two years, the scale of bond funds has not increased, and the bond holdings of brokerage proprietary trading and bond funds may not have grown [1] Group 2 - The change in insurance capital's stock holdings is partly due to stock price fluctuations and partly due to new investments [1] - Due to the maturity of non-standard assets and a significant drop in deposit interest rates, the proportion of insurance capital in bond investments has notably increased [1] - The growth trend of bank deposits aligns with the growth of social financing, indicating that asset allocation generates liabilities [1] Group 3 - The central bank's easing measures have made adjusted government bonds have certain allocation value, and banks may further increase bond allocations due to weak credit demand [1] - Over the past month, the combined reduction in the holdings of 7Y and above interest rate bonds by brokerage proprietary trading and bond funds exceeded 500 billion, with over 200 billion in long-term interest rate bonds [1] - As non-bank trading positions shift long-term interest rate bond holdings to insurance capital and other allocation positions, coupled with a significant reduction in supply in Q4, the bond market is expected to decouple from the stock market [1] Group 4 - The presence of speculation makes both stocks and bonds susceptible to positive and negative feedback [1] - A stock bull market driven by funds does not necessarily lead to a bond bear market, and bond market pricing will eventually return to fundamental financial conditions [1] - In a low-interest-rate environment, pure bond investment is challenging, and a trend in the bond market is not expected in 2025, necessitating wave-based operations [1] Group 5 - The company’s bond ETF (511030) has shown stable and controllable pullbacks, ranking first among comparable peers [2]