Core Viewpoint - First Shanghai has issued a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378), predicting revenue growth from 156 billion RMB in 2025 to 167.4 billion RMB in 2027, with net profit increasing from 24.5 billion RMB to 25.8 billion RMB during the same period, and a target price of 29.0 HKD, indicating a 24% upside potential from the current price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of 81.039 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, with gross profit reaching 20.805 billion RMB, up 16.9%, and a gross margin improvement of 1.5 percentage points to 25.7% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.361 billion RMB, reflecting a robust year-on-year growth of 35.0%, with a net profit margin increase of 3.1 percentage points to 16.7% [2] - Basic earnings per share surged by 36.0% to 1.31 RMB [2] Group 2: Cost Advantages and Operational Efficiency - The company benefits from a stable supply of bauxite, with 75.3% sourced from Guinea, ensuring raw material cost advantages [3] - The midstream electrolytic aluminum sales reached 2.906 million tons, with a gross margin increase of 0.6 percentage points to 25.2%, driven by optimized energy structure, low-carbon technology, and digital empowerment [3] - Downstream aluminum alloy processing sales were 392,000 tons, with revenue growth of 6.5% to 8.074 billion RMB, highlighting the successful delivery of high-value-added products [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The global electrolytic aluminum market showed a tight balance between supply and demand in the first half of 2025, with China's primary aluminum production accounting for approximately 59.7% of global output and consumption at 62.6% [4] - The demand from sectors such as power grids, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles has contributed significantly to domestic demand growth [4] - It is expected that electrolytic aluminum prices will remain in the range of 20,600 to 21,300 RMB per ton, while alumina prices will stay between 3,200 to 3,300 RMB, indicating an overall upward price trend [4] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - The company has prioritized shareholder returns, spending 2.61 billion HKD to repurchase 18.7 million shares in the first half of the year, which directly enhances earnings per share [5] - The company has committed to maintaining the dividend payout ratio at the 2024 level for 2025 and announced a new repurchase plan of no less than 3 billion HKD, demonstrating management's confidence in the company's future development [5]
第一上海：予中国宏桥“买入”评级 目标价29.0港元