邓正红能源软实力：鲍威尔暗示降息引发三重传导 非对称平衡削弱原油制裁效力

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the interplay between Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and geopolitical tensions, which have stabilized oil prices around the critical $65 per barrel mark. India's continued purchase of Russian oil amidst U.S. tariff threats is reshaping the market's assessment of "political risk premium" [1]. Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - Brent crude oil prices approached $68 per barrel, rising nearly 3% last week, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices exceeded $63 per barrel [1]. - The recent $3 increase in oil prices is largely driven by sentiment, with over half attributed to emotional-driven pricing power dynamics [1][2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. has threatened to double tariffs on all Indian imports to 50% in retaliation for India's purchase of Russian oil, yet Indian refiners plan to continue sourcing oil from Moscow [1]. - India's stance reflects a "non-symmetric balance" in soft power, utilizing diversified supply channels to mitigate the impact of unilateral sanctions [2]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Influence - Jerome Powell's dovish signals regarding potential interest rate cuts have led to a weaker dollar, which historically correlates with a 2.3% average increase in oil prices for every 1% decline in the dollar index [3]. - The market's response to Powell's comments has activated midstream hedging demand, indicating a shift in capital flows towards adjusting positions based on monetary policy signals [3]. Group 4: Structural Supply Tensions - The model indicates that the proposed 50% tariff on India will be mitigated by factors such as India's reliance on Russian oil and the expected release of strategic reserves, which could buffer the impact [4]. - The soft power coefficients for various factors affecting supply include a 0.42 coefficient for the India import dispute and a 0.67 coefficient for the Russian supply gap, indicating varying degrees of influence on price elasticity [4]. Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - Recommendations include establishing a Geopolitical Sensitivity Index (GPSI) to quantify the soft power loss from supply disruptions and developing hedging tools that incorporate Federal Reserve interest rate expectations into oil futures pricing models [5]. - It is advised to create options protection positions for Brent prices in the $68-$70 range and to monitor Indian import data for insights on the pricing of Russian Ural crude [5].