CNRE(SH:600111) Xin Lang Ji Jin·2025-08-25 02:50Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has risen to 90%, leading to a surge in the non-ferrous metal sector, with significant gains in leading companies and ETFs [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector (申万) increased by 4.61%, with a net inflow of 11.935 billion [2]. - The leading non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) opened with a gap up, rising by 4.82% and attracting a net subscription of 11.4 million shares [1]. - Major stocks such as Northern Copper and Jiangxi Copper saw gains of over 8%, while Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining rose by over 7% and 5%, respectively [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Impact - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a rising risk of employment downturn, which may justify policy adjustments, leading to increased bets on a September rate cut [2][3]. - The expected benefits of a rate cut for non-ferrous metals include dollar depreciation, price increases, economic stimulation, demand growth, cost reduction, and improved profitability [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The recent release of regulations on rare earth mining and separation by Chinese authorities solidifies the strategic importance of these metals [3]. - Analysts predict that rare earth prices are likely to rise due to downstream restocking expectations, with historical trends showing that high overseas prices often lead to domestic price increases [3]. - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to benefit from both monetary easing due to the Fed's rate cuts and domestic policies aimed at optimizing production factors [3][6]. Group 4: Investment Logic - The non-ferrous metal sector has shown a cumulative increase of 24.91% year-to-date, leading all 31 primary industries [6]. - The sector's current price-to-book ratio is at a historically low level of 2.36, indicating potential for valuation recovery [6]. - The ETF (159876) offers diversified exposure to various metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, which helps mitigate investment risks [8].