Core Viewpoint - Experts believe that the era of rapid price increases in China is approaching, primarily due to severe monetary overproduction by the central bank, with M2 reaching 330.29 trillion yuan by June 2025, which is double the GDP. However, instead of inflation, the economy is entering a deflationary cycle, with prices of goods like cars, houses, and luxury items still in a downward adjustment phase [1][3]. Economic Conditions - The deflationary cycle in the domestic economy is attributed to two main factors: despite significant monetary overproduction, much of the excess liquidity is not entering the goods or capital markets but is circulating within the financial system due to insufficient investment and consumption confidence. This has led to falling prices in the goods market [3]. - Additionally, the sluggish performance of the real economy has resulted in stagnant or declining household income, leading to a rapid shrinkage in consumer demand. Consequently, businesses face severe inventory backlogs and are compelled to lower prices to recover funds [3]. Investment Recommendations - As the economy enters a deflationary period, industry insiders advise caution regarding asset depreciation, suggesting that investors should avoid certain actions: - Do not chase high stock prices, as the recent bull market in A-shares is driven by capital inflow from low bank deposit rates, making it unsustainable [7][9]. - Exercise caution when purchasing wealth management products, as the market has seen an increase in losses, with many investors facing principal losses due to declining money market yields and rising bond market risks [11]. - Avoid investing in real estate, as the market has been in a long-term adjustment since 2022, with average housing prices dropping by 30% from their peak, and some cities experiencing declines of over 60% [13]. - Refrain from blind entrepreneurship, as the success rate is low in a shrinking market, with rising costs and intense competition posing significant challenges [15]. Market Outlook - Starting in September, there may be a need to prepare for asset depreciation, as both real estate and stock markets exhibit significant bubbles and lack long-term investment value. In a deflationary context, risks associated with bank wealth management products and entrepreneurship are high, potentially leading to principal losses. It is recommended to consider low-risk investment products, such as government bonds and large-denomination certificates of deposit, to preserve capital and take advantage of future investment opportunities when asset bubbles burst [16].
从今年开始,要做好“资产贬值”的准备?这四件事情建议别做
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-25 02:57