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永升服务(01995.HK):盈利能力承压 股息率具备一定支撑

Core Viewpoint - The company reported lower-than-expected performance for 1H25, with revenue growth of 3% to 3.46 billion yuan and a net profit decline of 19% to 210 million yuan, primarily due to a decrease in core business gross margin and an increase in accounts receivable impairment provisions [1][2] Financial Performance - Revenue for 1H25 increased by 3% to 3.46 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 19% to 210 million yuan, falling short of market expectations [1] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.095 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 70%, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.4% [1] - The gross margin for core business faced pressure, with the basic property gross margin down by 2 percentage points to 18.5% and community value-added services gross margin down by 8.9 percentage points to 28.2% [2] Operational Highlights - The company achieved a historical high in third-party expansion with an annualized contract amount of approximately 870 million yuan, a 9% increase year-on-year [1] - The managed area increased by 7% to 254 million square meters, while the company exited non-core cities and low-quality projects, reducing the managed area by 15.68 million square meters [1] Cash Flow and Cost Management - Operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 230 million yuan, compared to an inflow of 100 million yuan in the same period last year, primarily due to pressure on collection rates and an increase in accounts receivable [2] - The selling and administrative expense ratio decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 6.6%, benefiting from ongoing optimization of back-office management efficiency [2] Strategic Outlook - The company aims to solidify its internal capabilities and focus on cash flow performance and shareholder returns amid industry and economic challenges [2] - The company is committed to strategic transformation, enhancing service quality, optimizing cost structures, and strengthening team capabilities to maintain competitiveness [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered by 16% and 15% to 420 million yuan and 440 million yuan, respectively [3] - The target price has been reduced by 7% to 2.33 HKD, reflecting adjustments in earnings forecasts and potential dividend yield support [3] - The company is currently trading at a 2025 price-to-earnings ratio of 7.8 times and a projected dividend yield of 9.0% [3]