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微盟集团(02013.HK):上半年实现扭亏为盈 核心业务呈企稳态势

Core Viewpoint - Micro-Link Group's revenue for the first half of 2025 met expectations, while profits exceeded expectations, marking a significant improvement in financial performance [1][3]. Revenue Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was recorded at 780 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10.6%. However, after adjusting for the impact of reduced rebate rates in 2024, revenue increased by 7.8% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [1]. - Subscription solutions revenue was 440 million yuan, down 10.1% year-on-year, but showed signs of stabilization quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - Smart retail revenue was 290 million yuan, a decrease of 6.1% year-on-year, primarily due to adverse external macroeconomic conditions [2]. Profitability and Margin Improvement - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 24 million yuan, a turnaround from a loss of 34 million yuan in the same period last year, marking the first profit since 2021 [1][3]. - Gross profit for the first half of 2025 was 580 million yuan, with a gross margin improvement of 9 percentage points to 75.1% [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates gradual recovery in revenue for subscription and merchant solutions in the second half of 2025, driven by reduced negative impacts from deferred revenue, expansion in local life scenarios, and normalization of rebate rates [2]. - Revenue forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down by 19% to 1.59 billion yuan, while the adjusted net profit forecast has been raised by 36% to 55.75 million yuan [3]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price is maintained at 2.8 HKD, based on a 5x price-to-sales ratio for 2025, indicating a 15% upside potential from the current trading level of 4x [3].