黄金时间·一周金市回顾：鲍威尔放“鸽”助力金价大涨 技术整理态势或接近尾声

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a strong upward trend last week, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve following Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Last week, spot gold opened at $3337.81 per ounce, peaked at $3378.75, and closed at $3371.54, marking a weekly increase of $35.81 or 1.07% [1]. - Despite initial pressure on gold prices due to a decrease in expectations for a significant rate cut by the Fed, Powell's remarks led to a rebound, reversing previous declines [2]. - The market is closely monitoring geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern situations, as well as upcoming U.S. economic data that may influence the Fed's rate cut path [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - Powell's speech indicated that while inflation risks are rising, the Fed may still consider rate cuts in the coming months, increasing market bets on a September rate cut to 85% [2]. - The July meeting minutes revealed a split among Fed officials regarding inflation and labor market risks, with most viewing inflation as a more significant threat [3]. - There are differing opinions within the Fed about the timing of potential rate cuts, with some officials advocating for immediate cuts while others suggest caution [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Uncertainty - The geopolitical landscape remains uncertain, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, despite recent diplomatic engagements [5]. - The potential for negotiations is complicated by various risks, including the possibility of territorial concessions by Ukraine [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Gold prices have been fluctuating within a high range, with seasonal market sentiment showing signs of decline, particularly in Asia's physical gold demand [6]. - Speculative long positions in gold futures have decreased, while open interest in gold contracts has increased slightly [6]. - Technically, gold prices are showing signs of potential upward movement, with key resistance levels identified at $3400-$3420 and $3453 per ounce, while support levels are at $3360-$3340 and $3320-$3300 [6].