美联储即将时隔9月后重启降息，利好效应或格外明显！

Group 1 - Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will restart interest rate cuts in September, which could extend and amplify the stock market rally [1][2] - Historical data supports this optimism, with 10 out of 11 instances of the Fed pausing for 5 to 12 months before cutting rates resulting in a rise in the S&P 500 index within a year [1] - The market's focus has shifted from whether the Fed will cut rates this year to how many times and at what pace cuts will occur [1][2] Group 2 - Current market expectations indicate an 85% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with an 83.9% chance of at least two cuts in the remaining three policy meetings of the year [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a record closing high, rising 1.5% for the week, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.3% [2] Group 3 - Several economic data releases, including the PCE index, non-farm payroll report, CPI, and PPI, could influence the Fed's decision before the September meeting [3] - Analysts believe that only unexpected events, such as a strong inflation report, could alter the current trend of anticipated rate cuts [3] Group 4 - If the Fed cuts rates, the stock market rally may extend beyond large-cap tech stocks, as lower rates typically encourage investors to seek higher returns [4] - Small-cap stocks are expected to benefit significantly due to their sensitivity to borrowing costs, with the Russell 2000 index rising 3.9% recently [5] Group 5 - Despite the optimistic market sentiment, some analysts warn that the market may be in an "overexcited state," raising concerns about sustainability [6] - Internal divisions within the Fed regarding the pace of easing policies have been highlighted, with some officials expressing reluctance to support rate cuts based on current data [6]