2025年楼市逆转：还在观望的人，已被市场远远甩开

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a significant rebound, moving away from a prolonged downturn and entering a phase of steady recovery [1][4]. Market Recovery - In Q2 2025, new residential prices in 70 major cities rose by 3.7% month-on-month, with first-tier cities seeing a 5.2% increase and second-tier cities 4.6% [2]. - The total sales area of commercial housing in the first half of 2025 reached 728 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, while sales revenue hit 7.53 trillion yuan, up 18.2% [4]. Policy Impact - The market turnaround is attributed to a series of effective policy adjustments, including reduced down payment ratios and lower mortgage rates, particularly in first-tier cities where rates have fallen below 4% [5][8]. - The "housing is for living, not for speculation" policy introduced at the end of 2024 marked a significant shift in real estate policy [5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The urbanization rate in China reached 67.3% in 2024 and is expected to exceed 68% in 2025, indicating a stable demand for housing as approximately 12 million people migrate to cities annually [8]. - The new housing supply has significantly decreased due to strict regulations over the past three years, with new construction area dropping by 38.6% from its peak in 2021 [8]. Regional Disparities - The recovery is characterized by notable regional differences, with first and second-tier cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai experiencing price increases exceeding 8% year-on-year [9]. - Conversely, third and fourth-tier cities are lagging in recovery, facing inventory pressures due to population outflows [11]. Investor Sentiment - A survey indicated that 43.7% of respondents in Q2 2025 are considering purchasing investment properties, a significant increase of 18.6 percentage points from the previous year [11]. - Funds that previously flowed into stock markets are returning to real estate, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment [11]. Fiscal Health - Land sales revenue in the first half of 2025 reached 2.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, marking the first significant growth since 2021 [11]. Macroeconomic Context - The real estate sector contributes approximately 25% to GDP and over 15% to employment, underscoring its critical role in stabilizing the economy amid downward pressures [12]. Future Outlook - Experts predict a more rational market moving forward, with housing price growth aligning with income growth, and speculative demand being curtailed [12]. - The forecast for 2025 suggests a potential price increase of 6%, with a more moderate growth rate of around 5% in 2026 [12]. Market Characteristics - The current market is marked by increased regional differentiation, scarcity of quality assets, and a return to the fundamental purpose of housing [14]. - Investors are advised to focus on location, quality, and amenities, as the market matures and the importance of informed decision-making grows [14].