大摩：美联储内部或再难达成共识 鲍威尔成弥合分歧关键人物

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent statements at the Jackson Hole global central banking conference have opened the door for a potential interest rate cut in September, leading to a strong market rebound [1] - Despite Wall Street's expectation of a rate cut next month, there is no consensus among Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members, with differing views among policymakers, such as Kansas City Fed President Esther George [1][2] - Morgan Stanley economists indicate that Powell's influence is crucial in the decision-making process, as he holds a significant sway over the FOMC despite having only one vote [1] Group 2 - Future meetings may continue to see divisions among policymakers, with hawkish members emphasizing that inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, while other economic data shows resilience [2] - The internal composition of the Fed is changing, which may lead to more tug-of-war among policymakers, especially with the potential addition of more dovish members [2] - Analysts on Wall Street do not anticipate an aggressive easing cycle, and Powell has indicated that any rate cuts will be approached cautiously [2] Group 3 - The September rate cut is viewed as an "insurance" move, with Powell previously committing to act before labor market signals emerge [3] - Powell appears to be paving the way for a gradual normalization of interest rates, contingent on the economy performing as expected and without significant changes in risk [3]