dbg markets：鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上释放了降息信号

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is at a crossroads due to the impact of tariffs and economic downturn pressures [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact and Inflation - Powell acknowledged that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices has transitioned from expectation to reality, necessitating a reassessment of inflation prediction models [3] - The cost-push inflation resulting from tariffs may lead to rising wages, as workers may demand higher pay due to shrinking real incomes from increasing prices [3] - Powell expressed skepticism about the assumption that tariff effects are temporary, suggesting that if they are persistent, the Fed may need to maintain a more accommodative stance for a longer period [3] Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - Powell emphasized a "special balance" in the labor market, influenced by factors such as technological advancements, the retirement of the baby boomer generation, and tightening immigration policies [4] - These changes are expected to disrupt the traditional Phillips curve framework, prompting the Fed to reconsider its policy approach [4] Group 3: Market Expectations - The market is adjusting its expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising to 75% according to futures trading data [5]