别高兴太早！鲍威尔“放鸽”后，9月降息还有最后两道坎

Core Points - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has paved the way for a potential interest rate cut next month, but two upcoming economic reports could disrupt Wall Street's expectations [1][2] - The market currently anticipates a 75% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's mid-September meeting, with many economists predicting further cuts by late 2025 [1] - Powell's cautious stance indicates that a strong August jobs report or concerning inflation data could delay the rate cut [1][2] Economic Reports - The upcoming employment and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports, scheduled for September 5 and 11, will provide critical signals regarding the economy [2] - July's non-farm payroll data showed a significant slowdown in hiring, although the unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, which mitigates some market concerns [2] - The CPI rose by 2.7% year-over-year in July, while the preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index had an annualized growth rate of 2.6% in June, above the Fed's 2% target [2] Internal Fed Dynamics - There is ongoing debate within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some members expressing uncertainty about the potential for sustained inflation [3] - St. Louis Fed President James Bullard noted that inflation is closer to 3% rather than the Fed's target of 2%, suggesting a possibility of persistent inflation [3] - Some FOMC members, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins, believe more time is needed to assess the situation before making decisions on rate cuts [3] Political Pressure - Powell faces significant pressure from the White House, with President Trump advocating for a drastic reduction in interest rates and criticizing Powell's decisions [4] - Despite the political pressure, Powell's recent speech at Jackson Hole was well-received, indicating support from other central bank leaders [4] - The internal dissent within the FOMC is notable, as two members voted against Powell's stance in the last meeting, marking a rare occurrence in recent history [4]