美联储降息预期升温，黄金或迎新一轮上涨周期，黄金ETF基金(159937)连续3天获资金净流入

Core Viewpoint - The recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference have increased market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, which is likely to support gold prices and initiate a new upward trend in the gold market [4]. Group 1: Gold ETF Fund Performance - As of August 25, 2025, the Gold ETF Fund (159937) has risen by 0.60%, with a latest price of 7.41 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 12.03% over the past six months as of August 22 [3]. - The Gold ETF Fund has seen a turnover rate of 1.04% and a trading volume of 298 million yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 626 million yuan over the past month, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [3]. - The fund has experienced continuous net inflows over the past three days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 99.54 million yuan, totaling 122 million yuan, and an average daily net inflow of 40.53 million yuan [5]. Group 2: Market Influences and Expectations - Powell's dovish stance has shifted market expectations for a September rate cut to 91.1%, alleviating previous concerns about the independence of Federal Reserve policy and the uncertainty of the rate cut path, which is expected to lead to a breakout in gold prices [4]. - The price of gold is anticipated to rise in conjunction with copper prices, supported by rate cut expectations and seasonal demand, indicating a potential upward trend for both commodities [4]. Group 3: Fund Metrics and Historical Performance - The Gold ETF Fund has achieved an 80.81% net asset value increase over the past five years, ranking it among the top two comparable funds, with a historical annual return of 80.00% and a 100% probability of profit over a three-year holding period [6]. - The fund's maximum monthly return since inception is 10.62%, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being six months and a maximum gain of 16.53% [6]. - As of August 22, 2025, the fund's Sharpe ratio over the past year is 2.32, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [6].