鲍威尔暗示美联储或将降息，黄金短期反弹动能充足

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Federal Reserve is preparing to lower interest rates in response to economic risks, particularly concerning the labor market [2][3] - The gold ETF fund (159937) has seen a year-to-date increase of 25.17%, reflecting strong investor interest amid changing monetary policy expectations [1] - Current spot gold prices are around $3364.31 per ounce, with fluctuations influenced by Federal Reserve announcements and market sentiment [1][3] Group 2 - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference highlighted the need for potential adjustments in policy due to changing economic risks and labor market conditions [2] - The U.S. GDP growth is projected to slow from 2.5% to 1.2% by the first half of 2025, indicating structural challenges in the economy [2] - The labor market appears balanced, but there are signs of cooling demand and supply, increasing the risk of job losses [2] - Tariffs are expected to continue impacting prices, but the Fed views this as a one-time shock rather than a persistent inflation issue [2] - The Fed's current policy rate is closer to neutral, with inflation risks skewed upward and employment risks downward, necessitating a careful approach [2] - The new policy framework has removed previous commitments regarding inflation targets and employment levels, indicating a more data-driven approach [2] Group 3 - Short-term market dynamics are driven by Powell's dovish stance and weakening economic data, which have increased the likelihood of a rate cut in September [3] - The uncertainty in the Middle East may further boost safe-haven demand for gold, supporting its price [3] - In the medium term, persistent inflation and resilient employment data could lead to unexpected rate cuts by the Fed, increasing gold volatility [3] - Central banks are continuing to purchase gold amid a global trend of de-dollarization, providing long-term support for gold prices [3] - The gold ETF fund and its associated funds offer low-cost, diversified investment options in gold, aligning closely with domestic gold prices [3]