让央行听话，这不只是特朗普的愿望

Core Viewpoint - Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and reshape its leadership is raising global concerns among central banks about political interference in monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Central Bank Independence - Central bank officials from around the world expressed strong support for Powell's independence during the Jackson Hole meeting, viewing any loss of independence as a direct threat to global economic stability [2]. - Joachim Nagel, head of the German central bank, emphasized that independence is essential for price stability and should not be taken for granted [2]. - Concerns were raised that if the Fed succumbs to political pressure, it could set a dangerous precedent for political attacks on monetary policy independence globally [2][3]. Group 2: Global Political Pressure on Central Banks - Trump's actions are not isolated; central banks in Latvia, Slovenia, and Japan have faced similar political pressures [3]. - The Latvian central bank governor faced criticism for not aligning with government wishes, while Slovenia has been without a central bank governor due to political disputes [3]. - Japan's former Prime Minister Abe criticized the previous central bank governor, leading to a change in leadership that resulted in aggressive monetary policies [3]. Group 3: Potential Market Reactions - Currently, financial markets do not show deep concern regarding the Fed's independence, with strong stock market performance and stable bond yields [4]. - However, if the Fed's independence is compromised, it could lead to significant market turmoil, with investors demanding higher risk premiums for holding U.S. Treasuries [5]. - Analysts warn that Trump's actions could encourage governments, especially populist ones, to exert control over their central banks, potentially leading to rising global inflation and increased market volatility [5].