长期逻辑已变？军工基金还能持有吗？

Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry index has seen a significant increase of 28.91% since May, attracting considerable investor attention [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The military industry stocks have shown remarkable performance, with prices continuously rising [1] - The market's focus on the military sector has intensified due to this strong upward trend [1] Group 2: Long-term Growth Potential - Investors should not be overly concerned about short-term gains of 20%-30%, as the key to assessing the sector's value lies in its genuine growth momentum rather than current price levels [2] - The military industry is supported by a recovering fundamental landscape, existing order backing, and long-term prospects from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][3] Group 3: Growth Drivers - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to lead to a surge in orders, with a notable increase in orders for aerospace and missile chain companies [3] - Global military spending is projected to rise by 9.4% in 2024, reaching a post-Cold War high, with China's military expenditure growing at over 7% [3] - The national goal of achieving the centenary military objectives will continue to drive defense investments, providing a clear and long-term demand signal for the military industry [4] - China's military trade currently holds a 5.8% share of the global market, indicating significant room for growth as domestic technology and brand influence improve [4] - Military enterprises are actively exploring new growth avenues in satellite internet, advanced materials, aerospace, and cybersecurity, leveraging their technological advantages [4] Group 4: Short-term Market Dynamics - The military sector has experienced various short-term catalysts since late April, including conflicts that have provided upward momentum [5] - Although a potential short-term pullback may occur, the long-term support remains strong, suggesting that this could be an opportunity for mid-to-long-term positioning [7] - For investors already holding positions, maintaining a long-term perspective and holding onto investments is often a more favorable strategy [7] - New investors are advised to monitor the military sector and consider phased investments during potential pullbacks [8]