鲍威尔鸽声嘹亮，巴克莱、法巴等大行调整预期：9月降息25基点

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference is reshaping Wall Street's expectations for monetary policy [1] - Major investment banks, including Barclays, BNP Paribas, and Deutsche Bank, have adjusted their interest rate forecasts, now predicting a 25 basis point rate cut in September and another in December [1][2] - The market's response has been immediate, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September rising from 75% to 87% following Powell's remarks [1] Group 2 - Powell's speech introduced a "dovish tilt," leading Barclays to move its forecast for the first rate cut from September 2026 to September 2025, now expecting two rate cuts this year [2] - BNP Paribas has also shifted its long-held view, indicating a "micro-adjustment" rate cut in September unless data suggests otherwise [2] - Deutsche Bank updated its forecast from a single rate cut in December to two cuts in September and December 2025 [2] Group 3 - Powell's focus has shifted to the labor market, emphasizing rising downside risks, which analysts interpret as a preparation for potential "preventive" rate cuts [3] - The warning about rising risks of layoffs and unemployment indicates a change in the Fed's policy focus from solely combating inflation to balancing inflation control with employment maintenance [3]