宏观情绪改善 沪锡走势偏强【8月25日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a mixed trend with prices rising due to tight supply and weak demand, influenced by macroeconomic factors and recent central bank signals [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Tin prices increased by 1.22%, reaching 269,570 yuan/ton, driven by a dovish signal from the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts, improving macro sentiment [1]. - Tin ore supply recovery remains sluggish, with July imports at low levels due to the rainy season in Myanmar and transportation delays in Africa, impacting production [1]. - July saw a slight increase in tin ingot imports in China, primarily due to inventory sales from Chile's Minsur company, but overall imports remain significantly lower than the fourth quarter of the previous year [1]. - The current state of supply and demand is weak, with slow recovery in tin ore supply expected as mining in Myanmar gradually resumes [1]. - Demand is also weak, particularly in the home appliance sector, with a decline in production and reduced orders for photovoltaic tin bars in East China [1]. Market Outlook - New Lake Futures commented that there are no signs of improvement in major terminal markets, with the photovoltaic market cooling down after a surge, and other markets showing no significant changes [2]. - Supply conditions remain stable, with smelters operating at low production levels due to ongoing tightness in tin ore supply [2]. - Domestic inventory levels have decreased but remain high overall, while overseas inventories are extremely low, indicating a potential imbalance [2]. - The short-term fundamentals are unlikely to provide strong support for tin prices, which are expected to continue fluctuating [2].