Core Points - The balance of risks has shifted, with increased pressure on employment compared to previous concerns about inflation [1][8] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is viewed as a one-time effect, with limited long-term risks [3][8] - The adjustment of the Federal Reserve's policy framework allows for more flexible operations [3][8] - The possibility of a rate cut in September is open, contingent on upcoming data trends [5][8] Summary by Categories Employment and Inflation - The current labor market appears balanced but is not healthy, as both labor supply and demand are slowing down [1][3] - If employment data continues to weaken, the Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts without significant concerns about inflation [5][7] Tariff Impact - Tariffs are expected to cause a temporary price increase, but this will not lead to a sustained high inflation trend [3][5] - The price effects of tariffs are becoming visible, but the key question remains whether these increases will lead to persistent inflation [5][8] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve has removed specific language from its policy framework, allowing for more straightforward communication and decision-making [3][8] - The cautious but dovish tone of Powell's speech indicates that if the job market continues to weaken, the likelihood of a rate cut increases [7][8]
市场炸锅!鲍威尔讲话后,9月降息预期骤升
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-25 09:14