市场预期美联储降息 人民币有望获得升值动力

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan is expected to accelerate its recovery and appreciation against the US dollar, driven by the anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and easing trade tensions between China and the US [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Trends - The People's Bank of China announced that the central parity rate of the yuan against the US dollar was set at 7.1161, an increase of 160 basis points from the previous day's rate of 7.1321, marking the highest level since November 2024 [1]. - Since July, the yuan has maintained a steady appreciation against the dollar, with expectations that the scale of yuan settlement will increase around the time of the Fed's potential rate cuts in September [1]. - The yuan has appreciated by 479 basis points against the dollar since 2025, with the dollar index declining over 10% [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Factors - Analysts suggest that if the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts in September, it will provide greater flexibility for China's monetary policy, which may need to lower interest rates further due to existing deflationary pressures [2]. - The current monetary policy in China remains accommodative, and there is a necessity to adjust the reserve requirement ratio to increase money supply and maintain market liquidity [2]. - Future yuan exchange rate trends will be influenced by three main factors: progress in China-US trade negotiations, the performance of the US dollar, and the pace and intensity of domestic macroeconomic policies [3].