Group 1: Core Insights - The report by JLL reveals a significant downturn in the real estate market, characterized by declining investments, shrinking transactions, high inventory levels, and increasing market differentiation, indicating a search for a new balance in the market [1][2][3] Group 2: Investment Decline - National real estate development investment fell by 11.2% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with residential investment down by 10.4%, marking a worsening trend compared to the first quarter [2] - New construction area has seen negative growth for 18 consecutive months, with a year-on-year decline of 21.3%, and land acquisition area down by 35.7%, impacting over 50 related industries [2] - The decline in real estate investment is attributed to a crisis of confidence, with developers showing a significant reduction in land acquisition, focusing on core urban areas while avoiding third and fourth-tier cities [2] Group 3: Transaction Shrinkage - The sales area of new residential properties nationwide was 3.8 billion square meters in the first half of the year, a decrease of 3.7% year-on-year, with a more pronounced drop of 6.1% in the second quarter [3][4] - The decline in transactions is driven by a combination of policy fatigue and insufficient market confidence, as previous strong stimulus measures have lost their effectiveness [3][4] Group 4: Price Trends - The average sales price of new residential properties nationwide was 10,128 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, a significant drop from a 1.6% increase in the first quarter [5][7] - Developers are adopting "price for volume" strategies to stimulate sales, but this approach is proving ineffective as buyers remain hesitant, expecting further price declines [7] Group 5: High Inventory Levels - As of the end of June, the nationwide inventory of unsold residential properties stood at 40.82 million square meters, equivalent to approximately 5 million units of 100 square meters each, despite a slight reduction from the previous quarter [8] - The implementation of new housing regulations has exacerbated the divide between old and new inventory, with buyers preferring newly built properties that meet higher standards [8] Group 6: Future Differentiation - The report indicates that urban differentiation will be a key theme over the next five years, with specific cities likely to experience structural opportunities [9][10] - Cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are expected to see price increases in high-quality properties, while cities benefiting from provincial strategies and industrial upgrades will maintain stable demand [10]
2025年下半年楼市怎么走？
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-25 09:53